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Publication Minnesota 2001 - A Projection of Arrests and Convictions in Minnesota

Stephen Coleman, Ph.D., Kathryn Guthrie, Minnesota State Planning Agency

January 1, 1986    NCJ 105756

The first is the passage of the children of the baby boom generation through the crime-prone ages of 15 to 25. The second is the steady growth of the black and Indian populations -- two groups with disproportionately high crime rates. Statewide, only a small increase in annual arrests (12 percent or 15,000) is likely by 2010 as a direct result of changes in the population, and most of this increase will occur after 2000. Statewide felony convictions will likely remain level through 2000, but convictions may increase by about 15 percent (11,060 annually). The number of persons convicted of felonies and sentenced to prison may go up by 28 percent by 2010, with most increases after 2000. Sherburne, Chisago, Wright, and Isanti Counties have young rapidly growing populations that may result in increases of 60 percent or more in arrests and felony convictions; 50-percent increases may occur in Hennepin County and Minneapolis. Policy implications of these projections are discussed. 30 tables and 17 references.


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