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Publication Prison Population Forecast for Washington State, Fiscal Year 1982-1995 - Methods, Procedures and Findings

March 1, 1982    NCJ 82782

Criminal justice decisionmakers participated in the process of developing the State's prison population forecast. Basically, the forecast methodology involved application of the following formula: the future prison population equals the present prison population plus new prison admissions plus parole failures minus prison releases. The six components of the resultant prison population forecast include crime categories, sex and age structure of the at-risk population, conviction rates, judicial decision to imprison, length of stay, and the rate of return of parolees to prison. Findings are presented in terms of annual forecast, monthly forecast, and prison population composition. The major finding of this forecast is that the prison population may nearly double by 1995 because admissions will exceed releases throughout the forecast period. In June of 1981, the prison population numbered 4,720. If the assumptions of the forecast hold, the population will be 8,655 in June of 1995. The at-risk population is expected to continue to grow and to age during the forecast period. The conviction rate is expected to increase gradually for violent offenders through fiscal year 1988; after 1988, it is expected that the violent crime conviction rates will stabilize. One figure, 4 charts, and 22 tables, and 11 references are included. Technical data are appended.


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